As the Stern Review accurately observed, although they have played little or no role in contributing greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, it is the poorest countries that will be hit hardest by climate change. They are already geographically warmer than most developed nations and their dependency on agriculture make them the likest victims of failing crops, potential famine and disease. Unlike the industrialised nations they lack the funds to finance adaptation to their changing circumstances or to adopt new low carbon technologies. The cycle of poverty and depredation that has afflicted much of Africa seems destined to continue without the committed intervention of the developed nations most responsible for contributing to global warming.
Rising sea levels also threaten large low lying parts of South East Asia, the Caribbean and Pacific. The vulnerable countries face overwhelming issues of coastal protection and are unlikely to be able to avert recurrent flooding and loss of land mass to the sea. These cumulative natural disasters will inevitable promote substantial population movements as the poor and disadvantaged move to more temperate regions in the developed world. Mass population movements will in turn pose substantial challenges for industrialised countries struggling to wean their own economies off of their carbon dependency.
While the higher latitudes will gain some benefits from a warmer climate, these may well be offset by the economic impacts caused by extreme weather events, migratory diseases and the costs of adapting to low carbon technologies. Whatever the geographical location, climate change seems certain to have deep and far reaching effects on the structure of society and our future economic stability.